UPM-Biofore-Magazine-2-2019

N othing has slowed down the increasing popularity of air transport: not hurricanes, financial crises, or even terrorist attacks. Ten years ago, the annual number of air passengers was 2.5 billion. Today, that number is 4.5 billion. So far, only 20% of the world’s population has travelled by air, and the International Air Transport Association predicts the number of air passengers will double by 2037. This year, 100 million Asian passengers will take their first flight. As a consequence of increased air traffic, emissions levels have risen as well. The 40 million flights made annually—averaging more than 100,000 flights per day—release 900 million tonnes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. The aviation industry is a significant source of greenhouse gas emissions: for comparison, if it were a country, it would rank between the fifth and sixth biggest polluters, Japan and Germany. Between January and June 2019, aviation emissions again increased by almost 3.5% on the corresponding period last year. If the current forecasts prove correct, aviation alone may use up half of the IPCC’s carbon budget for restricting the average temperature increase to 1.5°C. In the worst-case scenario, aviation emissions may more than triple by the middle of this century.

Offsetting is just the start The aviation sector is aware of the issue. Over the last ten years, the sector has invested USD 1 trillion in aeroplanes that reduce fuel consumption by a quarter that of the previous generations of aircraft. Fuel usage has also been reduced by streamlining airfield operations and optimising flight routes. In addition, airlines almost invariably offer their passengers the option of offsetting their emissions or supporting the use of bio-jet fuel by paying a little extra for their flight. And of course high hopes have been pinned on emissions reduction schemes. The EU’s internal air transport has been included in the emissions trading system since 2012, and the UN’s aviation organisation (ICAO) has set a cap for the growth of aviation emissions, aiming to ensure that any increase in emissions above 2020 levels are to be offset elsewhere. The ICAO’s emissions reduction scheme, CORSIA, already has 192 participating countries, so the reduction potential is significant — at least in theory. In practice, however, airlines are merely monitoring their emissions. The next step is a voluntary pilot phase scheduled to begin in 2021, after which the voluntary initial phase begins in 2024. Offsetting emissions will not become obligatory until 2027. Even then, effective implementation of the system means that energy production, industry and other modes of transport must also reduce their emissions sufficiently to release offsetting permits for purchase.

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