UPM-Biofore-Magazine-2-2019

hemisphere, which could exacerbate the risk of flooding. This should not directly affect UPM’s pulp mills, however. In Eastern China, the annual average temperature may rise by between 1.6°C and 2.7°C. The Finnish

Finland feels the heat Climate change will have the biggest physical impact on UPM’s business environment in Finland, where temperatures are expected to rise more significantly and rapidly than the world average. The average temperature

may rise between 1°C and 6°C in winter and between 1°C and 4°C in summer. “Forest growth will likely accelerate as the growing season will be longer and the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will increase. However, weather extremes will intensify, which presents new risks,” Venäläinen adds. The spruce-dominated forests of Southern and Central Finland are predicted to be stricken by drought, which in turn increases the risk of forest fires. At the same time, the amount of rainfall in Northern Finland may increase, especially during the winter, which would increase the risk of snow- related damage. In Southern Finland, the warmer and shorter winters would lead to shorter season of sub-zero temperatures, which could increase the difficulty of harvesting trees using heavy forest machinery. Rising temperatures would also increase the prevalence of pests in forests, one unwelcome example being the European spruce bark beetle, which could wreak widespread destruction at northern latitudes as it currently does in Central Europe. These are the kind of potential changes for which we can prepare ourselves better if we can anticipate them in advance.

Meteorological Institute predicts that the biggest related risk would be the flooding of the River Yangtze due to a potential increase in rainfall. In Southern Germany, the annual average temperature could rise between 1.6°C and 2.7°C by 2050, depending on the eventual emission scenario. The increase of droughts and forest fires due to higher temperatures constitute the biggest risks for forestry. Preparing for different scenarios The new report compiled in collaboration with the Finnish Meteorological Institute forms part of UPM’s Climate Change Agenda , which studies climate change-related risks and opportunities potentially affecting the company’s business, explains Maija Ruska , Project Manager at UPM. “In addition to looking at the physical impacts of global warming, we want to find out how the shift to a low- emission economy will impact UPM’s business,” states Ruska. She notes that climate change not only involves certain operational risks, but also presents new business opportunities for UPM, with governments, companies and consumers all feverishly searching for new solutions to decrease emissions.

“If we significantly reduce global emissions, the physical impacts of climate change in the countries where UPM operates would remain relatively insignificant.” – Ari Venäläinen

UPM’s products offer a sustainable solution to mitigating climate change as they systematically replace fossil rawmaterials with bio-based renewable alternatives. The products store carbon dioxide for the entire duration of their lifecycle, even when recycled multiple times. “UPM’s Biofore strategy responds to future needs in many ways. UPM’s biofuels are a great example. The whole business has evolved out of the need to mitigate climate change.”

Southern scenarios The FinnishMeteorological Institute estimates that the impacts of climate change will be less significant in the other three countries where UPM operates. In Uruguay, the annual average temperature may rise between 0.9°C and 1.8°C, but this would not significantly affect forest growth. Rainfall is expected to increase during the summer, particularly in the southern

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